Rounaq Bakshi notes

  Dollar down 10% in first half of 2025, biggest fall since early 1970s The US dollar languished at its weakest against the euro since September 2021 as President Donald Trump's spending bill stoked fiscal worries and uncertainty around trade deals continued to weigh on sentiment. Investors have also started wagering on a quicker pace of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve this year ahead of a slew of US economic data  Spurred dollar-selling, leaving the euro perched at a near four-year high of $1.179.  Sterling was steady at $1.3737, not far from the three-and-a-half-year high it touched last week, while the Japanese yen firmed to 143.68 per dollar.  The yen has gained 9% in the first half of the year, its strongest performance since 2016. The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six others, slipped to 96.688, its lowest since February 2022. Investors are grappling with uncertainty over the US Senate's efforts to pa...

  IDFC First Bank Eyes Rs 6 Lakh Cr In Deposits, Rs 12,000 Cr Profit By FY29 IDFC First Bank unveils vision 2.0, targets ₹6 lakh crore in deposits Looking ahead, Vaidyanathan outlined the bank’s ambitious Vision 2.0, targeting significant growth by FY 2029. The vision includes scaling customer deposits to approximately Rs. 6,00,000 crore, expanding the loan book to around Rs. 5,00,000 crore, and achieving a profit after tax (PAT) in the range of Rs. 12,000-13,000 crore. "We are committed to maintaining high standards of corporate governance as we pursue these goals," Mr. Vaidyanathan assured shareholders. IDFC First Bank has outlined an ambitious plan under its Vision 2.0, aiming for ₹6 lakh crore in deposits and ₹5 lakh crore in loans by FY 2029, as part of its efforts to become a leading bank in India. “We are targeting around ₹6,00,000 crore in deposits, ₹5,00,000 crore in loans, and ₹12,000 crore in profit by FY 29,” said V Vaidyanathan, MD and CEO of IDFC First Bank The ...

  DSP NIFTY 50 EQUAL WEIGHT ETF A unique 'zero-bias' strategy  Invests equally in each stock without any bias, no fund manager 'thinking' or emotions involved Top 50 Indian Companies  This ETF will replicate the Nifty 50 Equal Weight TRI, a derivative of the Nifty 50 Index Equal Weighted Strategy:  Instead of a market cap-based weightage (like the Nifty 50 index), all 50 stocks from the Nifty 50 Index will be approximately equally weighted at 2% each Nifty 50 Equal Weight TRI is likely to underperform Nifty 50 when the larger weighted stocks in the portfolio outperform the smaller weighted stocks in up or down markets, i.e. in highly polarized markets

  Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys Limited : Less than 10 PE  IMFA is India's largest, fully integrated producer of high quality ferro alloys with 190 MVA installed furnace capacity backed up by 204.55 MW captive power generation and extensive chrome ore mining tracts Long experience of the promoters; company one of the largest exporters of ferro chrome The promoters have an experience of more than five decades in operating / managing ferro-chrome plants. IMFA is one of the leading domestic producers and exporters of ferro chrome.  The total installed capacity is 190 MVA across six furnaces located at two manufacturing sites in Odisha.  IMFA exports ~90% of its total annual production.  The long-term volume contracts that IMFA has with some of the global leaders in the stainless-steel industry, mitigate demand risks to an extent. Chrome ore and power are the two most important cost drivers of ferro-chrome producers, apart from met (metallurgical) coke.  IMF...

  Allcargo Gati Limited: Story turnaround  Augmenting the managerial strength: Mr. Ketan Kulkarni who was appointed as the chief growth officer of Allcargo group early this year, has been elevated as Deputy Managing Director of GESCPL effective immediately. Ketan comes with 30 years of experience spanning multiple sectors. His last stint was with Blue Dart Express as a Chief Commercial Officer where he spent 17 years leading sustainable and strategic growth initiatives  Gross Margin: Gross margin has increased on a QoQ basis, for Q1FY25 gross margin stood at 27% as compared to 26% for Q4FY24   EBITDA: Operating cost continues to get optimized to bring about future growth in EBITDA. For Q1FY25 EBITDA stood at Rs. 20 crores, up 11% as compared to same period last year and 33% as compared to last quarter Cash Positive: Debt free as on June 2024 with a positive cash position of Rs. 196 crores after a successful QIP of Rs. 169 crores. 

  Parag Milk Foods: Profit after tax INR 27 Cr, growth of 27% YoY Parag Milk Foods Limited, a leading manufacturer and marketer of dairy-based branded products in India Profit after tax INR 27 Cr, growth of 27% YoY EBITDA INR 61 Cr; margin of 8.1%; up by 160 bps YoY  Flagship brand “Gowardhan Ghee” has witnessed 2% improvement in its market share, and now commands 22% market share in the Branded Cow Ghee segment; while the trusted “Go Cheese” brand enjoys a strong and steady market share of 35% in the Cheese market. Improved Market share- As per the latest IMARC report 2024; the flagship brand Gowardhan Ghee commands an improved 22% market share in the branded cow ghee segment, while the brand “Go Cheese” sustained its 35% market share in the Cheese category The company continues to strengthen its building blocks and is well poised to grow exponentially towards achieving INR 10,000 crore turnover target

 Titan Company: Down 20% from top The Jewellery Division, with brands Tanishq, Mia by Tanishq, Zoya, and CaratLane, significantly contributes to Titan’s revenue and profit. Tanishq, flagship brand, stands as India’s largest jewellery retailer Sustain 15-20% CAGR in Jewellery Division’s topline over next 3 years, leading to a market share gain from 8.5% in Financial Year 2023-24 to around  10-11% by Financial Year 2026-27 Stores that were once 5,000 square feet have now even expanded to 9,000 square feet, representing a considerable increase in size and stature.  Additionally, many of these stores are now multi-level stand-alone buildings.  Currently, approximately 180 stores equipped with a dedicated wedding floor, marking a significant increase compared to five to seven years ago when the number was less than 90.

  Dalmia Bharat Sugar and Industries: largest ethanol producers in India The company increased its distillery capacity from 140 KLPD in FY 2017-18 to 850 KLPD in FY 2023-24 The increase in distillery capacity in the last few years was in response to the National Biofuel Policy that liberated the country’s demand appetite on the one hand and empowered sugar manufacturers to switch from sugar manufacture to ethanol production on the supply side. Debt-equity ratio was 0.13 and the company had 469 Crore of cash on its books as on March 31, 2024.  The consolidated output from the company’s distilleries is poised to transform the company into one of the largest ethanol producers in India. Cane sourcing: The Company procures cane from around 2,00,000 cane growers (small and medium scale) and a cane area of around 1,20,000 hectares across five manufacturing units (three in Uttar Pradesh and two in Maharashtra). Around 70% of the cane was procured at the mill gate in FY2023-24, making ...

  Star Health and Allied Insurance Company:  retail health insurance market share of 32% Star Health and Allied Insurance Company Ltd. (Star Health Insurance), India’s largest retail health insurance company   Star Health and Allied Insurance Registers INR 430 crores PAT in H1FY25 For H1FY25, the operating expense to GWP ratio stood at 15.6%, reflecting effective cost control compared to 17% in H1FY24 with an Expense Ratio at 30.8%.  The solvency ratio also remained strong at 2.24x, exceeding the regulatory minimum requirement of 1.5x. GWP growth in H1-FY25 higher than average health industry growth Investment assets grew by 17.2% and reached INR 16,431 crores as on 30-Sep 2024, with an investment income of INR 354 crores.  The combined ratio in Q2FY25 stood at 103% and 101% in H1 FY25; the Company’s PAT for Q2FY25 stood at INR 111 crore.  The Company retained its leadership position in retail health insurance, with a market share of 32% and among SAHI...

  India Pesticides: favourable agricultural conditions Sole Indian manufacturer and global leading manufacturer of Thiocarbamate, 2 Fungicide & Herbicide Technical, in terms of production capacity   Present installed capacity of Technical is 24,200 MT and for formulation is 6,500 MT as of 30.06.2024    Major customers include MNCs that look to collaborate with active ingredient manufacturers in India   Among top 5 manufacturers globally for several technical in Fungicides and Herbicides    Broad international footprint, exporting to over ~25+ countries   Employing a ‘China plus one strategy and reducing dependence on China   Capex Plans Planned capital expenditure of ₹110 crore for FY25 to further boost capacity   Sandila + Hamirpur Budgeted Capex of Rs. ~110 Crore for FY25   Successfully commissioned intermediate plant, a significant step towards the backward integration of one of key fungicides, w...

  Tanla Platforms collaborative pact with WhatsApp  Meta Platforms-owned WhatsApp has inked a collaborative pact with communications services company Tanla Platforms to identify fraudulent phone numbers in an attempt to boost efforts at controlling scams over its messaging platform, a top executive close to the companies said. To identify fraudulent phone numbers in an attempt to boost efforts at controlling scams over its messaging platform, a top executive close to the companies said. Given that WhatsApp is an end-to-end encrypted channel, external signals are crucial for the platform to proactively identify a scam account and take down before any user falls in the trap of fraud messages or suspicious weblinks," the person cited said. He added that banking and telecommunications channels handling text messages and voice calling customer services can offer these crucial insights to over .. As per the partnership, Tanla's AI-based anti-phishing solution Wisely ATP, which ...

  J&K Bank : PAT for FY25 grew 17.83% Achieves hattrick in historic profits Posts annual net profit of Rs 2082 Cr for FY 2024-25 with advances surpassing Rs 1 Lakh Cr Asset Quality: Reinforcing its commitment to credit discipline and risk management, the Bank’s Gross NPA ratio declined sharply by 71 bps to 3.37% from 4.08% recorded a year ago, while the Net NPA ratio stood at 0.79%. Business Growth: J&K Bank’s total deposits increased by 10.24% YoY to Rs 148569.46 Cr as on March 31, 2025, compared to Rs 134774.89 Cr last year. The Net Advances rose to Rs 104198.72 Cr, registering a growth of 11.13% from Rs 93762.51 Cr a year ago. Both deposits and advances grew by 5.4% and 8.6% QoQ respectively. The Bank’s CASA Ratio stood at 47.01%, maintaining a healthy share of low-cost deposits in the overall mix. Performance Highlights: Beating consecutively its own highest record of profits achieved during the last two financial years, the Bank’s annual net profit surged to Rs 2082.46...

Business: One of the Market leaders in super abrasives Manufacturers of Special purpose Grinding Exchange (NSE). Machines for over 3 decades Manufacturers of High Precision components close to 2 decades Complete solution provider to our Customers, from Super abrasives Grinding wheels to Specialised tools, range of CNC Grinding & Honing machines and Precision Components all under one roof.  The growing usage of Super Abrasive products for various medical applications such as surgical instruments, hypodermic needles, dental implants, knee, hip and shoulder joints create new opportunities for the Company to explore through technical collaboration and new products development. Also, growing consumer electronic segment with manufacturing facilities in India is expected to provide a wide array of opportunities for consumption of Super Abrasives in the coming years. The focus on semiconductor industry which will make India a major hub for manufacturing semiconductors is expected to ...

Buying the Nifty50 Still “Buying the Market”? Diversification? Many Indian investors equate owning a low-cost Nifty50 index fund with having broad market exposure. But how diversified is it-really? As of mid-2025, the top 10 stocks in the Nifty50 account for over 62% of the total index weight.  Sector-wise, exposure is heavily skewed toward financial services (~37%), information technology (~17%), and energy (~12%).  In short, “buying the market” is increasingly a concentrated bet on a handful of large-cap sectors. This isn’t necessarily the wrong approach but it’s not as diversified as it might appear on paper. To counter this concentration, many investors turn to broader indices: BSE200 and BSE500 (Nifty200/Nifty500) • BSE200 covers ~85% of India’s market cap, with ~85–88% of its weight still in large-cap stocks. • BSE500 covers ~93% of the market, offering exposure across 22 sectors. Yet, over 80% of its weight is still driven by large caps. But Can You Diversify Too Much?...

  Tolins Tyres :  9MFY25 55% growth in PAT Tolins Tyres, founded in 1982 is a leading producer in the tyre industry, specializing in a diverse range of Retreading and tyre products.  The portfolio includes two and three-wheeler tyres, Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) tyres and Agriculture tyres.  Furthermore, Tolins Tyres takes pride in innovative “Procured Tread Rubber” and other retreading products, showcasing its commitment to cutting-edge technology.  These products have not only garnered acclaim in India but have also made a significant impact across 40 countries, including the Middle East, East Africa, Kenya, Jordan, and Egypt.  Tolins stands out as the first Indian retread brand to not only enter but thrive in the highly competitive American market for pre-cured retreading products     For the nine months ended December 2024, we delivered a solid 55% YoY growth in PAT, supported by business expansion, efficient inventory management, and ...

  Garware Hi-Tech Films Nine Months FY25 PAT at INR 253.4 crores, up by 74.2% Y-o-Y Remarkable performance in Consolidated Nine Months FY25  Revenues at INR 1,561.4 crores, up by 26.9% Y-o-Y  EBITDA at INR 374.1 crores, up by 61.7% Y-o-Y  PBT at INR 336.7 crores, up by 75.2% Y-o-Y  PAT at INR 253.4 crores, up by 74.2% Y-o-Y Tier 1 Brand A premium global brand, ranking top 3 in USA & Europe  ~70% Leading player in India's shrink film market with ~70% market share  Premium PPF The only manufacturer of professional-grade PPF in India  One of World’s largest Single location SCF capacit  SunControl Film Architectural Film  Gaining Traction with successful launches & marketing campaigns  A product that provides high performance, maximum clarity and impeccable durability that metallic films can't match  Spectra Pro Architectural Films Designed for high heat rejection & high VLT          

  Sportking India: Profit After Tax for 9M registering a growth of 54.0% YoY Capacity Utilization at 95% for Q3 FY25    Profit After Tax for 9M FY25 was Rs. 73.1 Crs – registering a growth of 54.0% YoY.  PAT Margin is 3.9% - expanding by 117 bps on a yearly basis  Revenue from operations stood at Rs. 1,895.4 Crs for 9M FY25, up 7.3% Y-o-Y. Exports contributed 50% in 9M FY25  Established in 1989, Sportking India Ltd emerged as one of India’s leading textile in company & owns 3 state-ofthe-art manufacturing facilities in India equipped with latest machinery, produces yarns that are a benchmark in quality.  The company produces well diversified range of grey and dyed textile yarns to cater to the demands of weaving and knitting industry in domestic as well as international markets.   

  BEML: securing orders for Metro Car projects      Rail & Metro  R&D Rail & Metro has taken up the design and development of Driverless Trains for Bangalore Metro’s 5RS-DM project.  R&D Rail & Metro is working on the upcoming Metro projects like Chennai Metro and Mumbai Metro Line #4, #5 & #6 tenders, Patna Metro and Bhubaneshwar Metro tenders.  Under the maintenance vehicle segment, R&D Rail & Metro is working on upcoming requirements for NCRTC, Delhi Metro, Mumbai Metro Line #3, Chennai Metro and Nagpur Metro. Similarly, R&D Rail & Metro is working on the tenders of Indian Railways for supply of ‘selfpropelled ultrasonic rail test’ Cars, Rail Borne Maintenance Vehicles, Rail Inspection Vehicle and Utility Track Vehicles.  Bangalore Complex: Bangalore Complex manufactures Stainless Steel Metro Cars for the Delhi Metro, Bengaluru Metro, Jaipur Metro, Kolkata Metro and Mumbai Metro  Received order worth...

  Indus Towers plans a foray into the EV charging infrastructure Aligning with the Government of India's emphasis on Electric Vehicle (EV) adoption and infrastructure augmentation Indus Towers Limited, India's leading telecom tower infrastructure provider, has Decided to pursue suitable business opportunities in the Electric Vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure sector Received the approval of its Board of Directors for the same subject to prudential framework.  The Company has already launched pilot EV charging stations in Gurugram and Bengaluru.  The Company is well positioned to contribute to the EV charging infrastructure sector by leveraging its expertise in managing and providing space, power, and operations and maintenance (O&M) for seamless operation and efficiency.  This is in line with the Company’s plan to supplement its long-term growth through relevant adjacent business opportunities. Indus Towers Limited is India’s leading provider of passive telecom...

  Adani Wilmar: One of the largest packaged Foods Company in India ‘Fortune’ brand has gained consumer acceptance in multiple Food categories   Edible oil & Staples together form 60-70% of the Indian kitchen / grocery spends Large scope to improve branded penetration Focus on Center of the Plate Categories :  Edible Oils , Wheat , Rice , Pulses & Besan , Sugar   Large TAM in staple foods; few large players have capabilities to benefit from formalization   2.1 Million Outlets   Market share in consumer pack Edible Oil: ~19%  Wheat Flour: ~6%  Basmati Rice: ~8%   Rank #1 Soyabean  #2 Palm Oil  #1 Mustard Oil  #3 Sunflower Oil  #1 Ricebran Oil  #2 Groundnut Oil  #5 Cottonseed Oil 

  TIPS Music partners with TikTok for global music distribution  The partnership aims to expand TIPS Music’s international reach by making its content accessible to TikTok’s global user base, particularly targeting Non-Resident Indians and expatriates   TIPS Music  a major Indian music label, announced today a direct partnership with TikTok to distribute its catalog of over 31,000 songs globally on the short-form video platform.  The strategic agreement excludes China and India. The partnership aims to expand TIPS Music’s international reach by making its content accessible to TikTok’s global user base, particularly targeting Non-Resident Indians and expatriates.  Kumar Taurani, Managing Director of TIPS Music Ltd, cited increasing global consumption of Indian music and existing TikTok trends as key factors behind the collaboration with ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company. Users will have access to TIPS Music’s diverse library, ranging from Bollywood classic...

  J&K Bank records another stellar performance with net profit for Q3 up 26% YoY and for 9 months up 33% YoY Well on its course to meet annual profitability target, the Bank’s net profit for the first nine months of current financial year has jumped 32.7% YoY to Rs 1497.92 Cr, compared to Rs 1128.60 Cr recorded for the same period last year, reflecting its sustained growth trajectory   Despite financial services sector witnessing heavy FPI outflow during 2024, there is an increase in FII/FPI shareholding to 7.07% as on 31st December, 2024 from 5.81% recorded a year ago   The Bank recorded significant growth in business volumes with Net Advances increasing by 7% YoY to Rs 95990.38 Cr.  Deposits grew by 9.7 % YoY to Rs 140947.14 Cr, while maintaining one of the best CASA ratios in the industry at 48.17%.   The Bank’s Gross NPA ratio declined YoY to 4.08%, down by 76 basis points (bps) from 4.84%, while as the Net NPA stood at 0.94%.  The Provisi...

  Whirlpool: 2030 Stock Whirlpool was incorporated as Kelvinator of India Ltd in 1960   and got its present name in 1994,   when it   entered into a strategic alliance with Whirlpool Corp. In 1995, the company launched refrigerators under the Whirlpool brand. It also manufactures washing machines and deals in air-conditioners, microwave ovens and deep freezers.  In 2022, the company has entered into the premium Front Load washing machines category by launching the XpertCare range. The liquidity remains adequate, with cash and equivalent of Rs 2,241 crore as on March 31, 2024, which is further supported by unutilised working capital limit. The company paid dividend of Rs 63.44 crore in fiscal 2024. Despite this, liquidity is expected to remain strong over the medium term. Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description Strengths: Established market position:   Whirlpool has a strong market position in the refrigerator and washing machine segments, which  ...