Dollar down 10% in first half of 2025, biggest fall since early 1970s

 Dollar down 10% in first half of 2025, biggest fall since early 1970s

• The US dollar languished at its weakest against the euro since September 2021 as President Donald Trump's spending bill stoked fiscal worries and uncertainty around trade deals continued to weigh on sentiment.
• Investors have also started wagering on a quicker pace of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve this year ahead of a slew of US economic data 
• Spurred dollar-selling, leaving the euro perched at a near four-year high of $1.179. 
• Sterling was steady at $1.3737, not far from the three-and-a-half-year high it touched last week, while the Japanese yen firmed to 143.68 per dollar. 
• The yen has gained 9% in the first half of the year, its strongest performance since 2016.
• The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six others, slipped to 96.688, its lowest since February 2022.
• Investors are grappling with uncertainty over the US Senate's efforts to pass Trump's tax-cut and spending bill, which faces internal party divisions over its projected $3.3 trillion addition to the national debt. The fiscal concerns have dampened sentiment and prompted some investors to diversify.
• The world's reserve currency is down more than 10%, its biggest first-half dive since the era of free-floating currencies began in the early 1970s
• In 2025, the U.S. exceptionalism narrative has been called into question. Treasury auction demand has been under pressure in recent months, and foreign investor appetite has reduced," said Nathan Hamilton, investment analyst for fixed income at Aberdeen Investments.
• Bear steepening of the Treasury yield curve, coupled with USD weakness, suggests financial markets are less willing to look through the relative credit risk metrics of the U.S. on the back of its status as the world's reserve currency
• Meanwhile, Trump has continued hammering the Fed to ease monetary policy, sending Fed Chair Jerome Powell a list of central bank interest rates around the world adorned with handwritten commentary saying the U.S. rate should be between Japan's 0.5% and Denmark's 1.75%.
• Trump's constant tirade against the Fed and Powell has fuelled investor worries about the central bank's independence and its credibility. Trump cannot fire Powell over a policy dispute, but  urged him to resign.
• There are many reasons not to like the USD. Some are structural, like the erratic trade policies and fiscal risks, said Moh Siong Sim, a currency strategist at Bank of Singapore.
• "They have earlier caused the USD to weaken despite its relative yield advantage. But the risk of a more dovish Federal Reserve eroding USD's yield advantage is the latest source of USD weakness."
• The unemployment rate was expected to have crept higher to 4.3%, from 4.2% last month.
• With the July 9 deadline for Trump's tariffs fast approaching investors are also keeping an eye on trade deals between the U.S. and its partners although there have not been many agreements so far.
• Trump expressed frustration with U.S.-Japan trade negotiations as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs despite good-faith negotiations.